A wave prediction system for real time sea state forecasting in the Black Sea

The group for marine forecasts at NIMH conducts scientific and applied research related to the development and implementation of numerical models to the specific conditions of the Black Sea for prediction of wind waves and the spread of oil spills resulting from natural disasters or industrial accidents.

Daily operations of the group for Marine Meteorology at the Information Center of NIMH includes 3 wave model: WAVEWATCH III (NOAA), WAM (ECMWF) and SWAN (TU-DELFT)- for the near shore forecasts, results of which are used for numerical analysis and short-term forecast of wind waves in the Black Sea.

The forcing data for the wave models are the wind forecasts from the coupling of the French atmospheric model ARPEGE and ALADIN. Wind forecasts from these atmospheric models are calculated twice a day (06.00 and 18.00 UTC), then 72 hour forecast of wave characteristics is calculated (significant wave height, mean direction of wave propagation and wave period). The models cover the Black Sea with a numerical grid of 41.5°N to 46.5°N and 28.0°E to 41.5°E and space step of 0.125° in latitude and longitude, and 0.033° for SWAN for the entire Black Sea and about 400 m for the Bay of Burgas

The model results are used to prepare warnings for strong winds and also to issue expert opinions on sea state, in open sea and along the coast.